Harold Tang Broker Grace Tang Sales Representative
Century 21 Percy Fulton Ltd., Brokerage
GTA REALTORS® Release June Stats
Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,082 home sales through TREB's MLS® System in June 2018 – up 2.4 per cent compared to the low June 2017 result. After preliminary seasonal adjustment, sales were also up 17.6 per cent on a monthly basis between May 2018 and June 2018, continuing the trend of somewhat volatile month-over-month changes over the past year as
"Home ownership has proven to be a positive long-term investment. After some adjustment to the Fair Housing Plan, the new Office of The Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) stress test requirement and generally higher borrowing costs, home buyers are starting to move back into the market, with sales trending up from last year's lows. Market conditions appear to be tightening,
The average selling price edged up by two per cent on a year-over-year basis to $807,871 in June 2018. After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the average selling price was also up by 3.3 per cent month-over-month between May 2018 and June 2018. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was down by 4.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis, but remained basically flat month-over-month. The difference in the year-over-year rates of change between the average price and the MLS® HPI was likely due, at least in part, to a change in the mix of properties sold in June 2018 compared to June 2017, with low-rise home types accounting for a greater share of sales in June 2018.
"The expectation is to see improvement in sales over the next year. Over the same period, however, it is likely that issues surrounding the supply of listings will persist. This suggests that competition between buyers could increase, exerting increased upward pressure on home prices. With a new provincial government in place and municipal elections on the horizon, housing supply
GTA REALTORS® Release April Stats
The year-over-year change in the overall average selling price has been impacted by both changes in market conditions as well as changes in the type and price point of homes being purchased. This is especially clear at the higher end of the market. Detached home sales for $2 million or more accounted for 5.5 per cent of total detached sales in April 2018, versus 10 per cent in April 2017. The MLS® Home Price Index strips out the impact of changes in the mix of home sales from one year to the next. This is why the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark was down by only 5.2 per cent year-over-year versus 12.4 per cent for the average price.
"While average selling prices have not climbed back to last year's record peak, April's price level represents a substantial gain over the past decade. Recent polling conducted for TREB by Ipsos tells us that the great majority of buyers are purchasing a home within which to live. This means these buyers are treating home ownership as a long-term investment. A strong and diverse labour market and continued population growth based on immigration should continue to underpin long-term home price appreciation," said Mr. Syrianos.
"The comparison of this year's sales and price figures to last year's record peak masks the fact that market conditions should support moderate increases in home prices as we move through the second half of the year, particularly for condominium apartments and higher density low-rise home types. Once we are past the current policy-based volatility, home owners should expect to see the resumption of a moderate and sustained pace of price growth in line with a strong local economy and steady population growth," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.
GTA REALTORS® Release February Stats
The number of new listings entered into TREB's MLS® System totaled 10,520, a 7.3 per cent increase compared to the 9,801 new listings entered in February 2017. However, the level of new listings remained below the average for the month of February for the previous 10 years.
"When TREB released its Outlook for 2018, the forecast anticipated a slow start to the year compared to the historically high sales count reported in the winter and early spring of 2017. Prospective home buyers are still coming to terms with the psychological impact of the Fair Housing Plan, and some have also had to reevaluate their plans due to the new OFSI-mandated mortgage stress test guidelines and generally higher borrowing costs," said Mr. Syrianos.
The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 3.2 per cent on a year-over-year basis for the TREB market area as a whole. This growth was driven by the apartment and townhouse market segments, with annual benchmark price increases of 18.8 per cent and 7.5 per cent respectively. Single-family detached and attached benchmark prices were down slightly compared to February 2017. The overall average selling price for February sales was down 12.4% year-over-year to $767,818. However, putting aside the price spike reported in the first quarter of 2017, it is important to note that February's average price remained 12 per cent higher than the average reported for February 2016, which represents an annualized increase well above the rate of inflation for the past two years.
"As we move further into the spring and summer months, growth in sales and selling prices is expected to pick up relative to last year. Expect stronger price growth to continue in the comparatively more affordable townhouse and condominium apartment segments. This being said, listings supply will likely remain below average in many neighbourhoods in the GTA, which, over the long-term, could further hamper affordability," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.
GTA REALTORS® Release January Stats
-- Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,019 residential transactions through TREB's MLS® System in January 2018. This result was down by 22 per cent compared to a record 5,155 sales reported in January 2017.
The number of new listings entered into TREB's MLS® System amounted to 8,585 – a 17.4 per cent increase compared to 7,314 new listings entered in January 2017. However, it is important to note that the level of new listings was the second lowest for the month of January in the past 10 years.
"TREB released its outlook for 2018 on January 30th. The outlook pointed to a slower start to 2018, especially compared to the record-setting pace experienced a year ago. As we move through the year, expect the pace of home sales to pick up, as the psychological impact of the Fair Housing Plan starts to wane and home buyers find their footing relative to the new OSFImandated stress test for mortgage approvals through federally regulated lenders," said Mr. Syrianos.
The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 5.2 per cent year-over-year. This annual rate of growth was driven by the condominium apartment market segment, with doubledigit annual growth versus the single-family segment, with prices essentially flat compared to last year. The overall average selling price was down by 4.1 per cent year-over-year to $736,783. This decline was weighted toward the detached segment of the market. In the City of Toronto, the average selling price was up for all home types except for detached houses.
"It is not surprising that home prices in some market segments were flat to down in January compared to last year. At this time last year, we were in the midst of a housing price spike driven by exceptionally low inventory in the marketplace. It is likely that market conditions will support a return to positive price growth for many home types in the second half of 2018. The condominium apartment segment will be the driver of this price growth," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.
More Moderate Price Growth in June
July 6, 2017 -- Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,974 sales through TREB's MLS® System in June 2017 – down by 37.3 per cent in comparison to June 2016.
The number of new residential listings entered into TREB's MLS® System, at 19,614, was up by 15.9 per cent compared to June 2016. While this annual rate of growth was sizeable, it represented a more moderate annual rate of growth compared to May 2017, when new listings were up by 48.9 per cent year-over-year.
"We are in a period of flux that often follows major government policy announcements pointed at the housing market. On one hand, consumer survey results tell us many households are very interested in purchasing a home in the near future, but some of these would-be buyers seem to be temporarily on the sidelines waiting to see the real impact of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan. On the other hand, we have existing home owners who are listing their home because they feel price growth may have peaked. The end result has been a better supplied market and a moderating annual pace of price growth," said Mr. Syrianos.
Annual growth rates for MLS® HPI benchmark prices have moderated over the past two months, but remain strong. The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was up by 25.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in June. June's average selling price for all home types combined for the TREB market area was $793,915, representing a 6.3 per cent increase compared to the same month in 2016. A better supplied market has certainly been a key factor influencing the moderation in price growth.
"Recent Ipsos survey results suggest that home buying activity in the GTA will remain strong moving forward. The year-over-year dip in home sales we have experienced over the last two months seem to be the result of would-be buyers putting their decision to purchase temporarily on hold while they monitor the impact of the Fair Housing Plan. On the supply side of the market, it certainly looks as though buyers will benefit from more choice in the second half of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016,"said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis and Service Channels.
Active Listings Increase in May
Active listings – the number of properties available for sale at the end of May – were up by 42.9 per cent compared to the lowest level in 15 years recorded in May 2016, but remained below the average and peak during that period. The number increased considerably for low-rise home types including detached and semi-detached houses and townhouses. Active listings for condominium apartments were down compared to May 2016.
"Home buyers definitely benefitted from a better supplied market in May, both in comparison to the same time last year and to the first four months of 2017. However, even with the robust increase in active listings, inventory levels remain low. At the end of May, we had less than two months of inventory. This is why we continued to see very strong annual rates of price growth, albeit lower than the peak growth rates earlier this year," said Mr. Cerqua.
Selling prices continued to increase strongly in May compared to the same month in 2016. The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark price was up by 29 per cent year-over-year. The average selling price for all home types combined for the TREB Market Area as a whole was up by 14.9 per cent to $863,910. Year-over-year price increases were greater for condominium apartments compared to low-rise home types. This likely reflects the fact that the low-rise market segments benefitted most from the increase in listings.
"The actual, or normalized, effect of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan remains to be seen. In the past, some housing policy changes have initially led to an overreaction on the part of homeowners and buyers, which later balanced out. On the listings front, the increase in active listings suggests that homeowners, after a protracted delay, are starting to react to the strong price growth we've experienced over the past year by listing their home for sale to take advantage of these equity gains," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.
Tight Market Conditions Continue in March
April 5, 2017 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 12,077 residential sales through TREB's MLS® System in March 2017. This result represented a 17.7 per cent increase compared to the 10,260 sales reported in March 2016. For the TREB market area as a whole, annual sales growth was strongest for condominium apartments and detached houses..
The number of new listings also increased on a year-over-year basis, at 17,051 – a 15.2 per cent increase compared to March 2016. The strongest growth in new listings was experienced in the detached market segment. While new listings were up strongly compared to last year, the rate new listings growth was still lower than the rate of sales growth. As a result, GTA market conditions continued to tighten.
"It has been encouraging to see that policymakers have not implemented any knee-jerk policies regarding the GTA housing market. Different levels of government are holding consultations with market stakeholders and TREB has participated and will continue to participate in these discussions. Policy makers must remember that it is the interplay between the demand for and supply of listings that influences price growth," said Mr. Cerqua.
Strong competition between buyers continued to cause high levels of price growth in all major market segments. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark Price was up by 28.6 per cent year-over-year. For the TREB market area as a whole, the average selling price was up by 33.2 per cent, with similar annual rates of growth in the low-rise and condominium apartment segments.
"Annual rates of price growth continued to accelerate in March as growth in sales outstripped growth in listings. A substantial period of months in which listings growth is greater than sales growth will be required to bring the GTA housing market back into balance. As policy makers seek to achieve this balance, it is important that an evidence-based approach is followed," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.
Record Sales in 2016
January 5, 2017 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua announced that 2016 was a second consecutive record year for home sales. Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 113,133 home sales through TREB's MLS® System – up by 11.8 per cent compared to 2015. The calendar year 2016 result included 5,338 sales in December – an annual increase of 8.6 per cent.
The strongest annual rate of sales growth in 2016 was experienced for condominium apartments followed by detached homes.
"A relatively strong regional economy, low unemployment and very low borrowing costs kept the demand for ownership housing strong in the GTA, as the region's population continued to grow in 2016," said Mr. Cerqua.
The annual rate of growth for the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) in the TREB market area accelerated throughout 2016 – from 10.7 per cent in January 2016 to 21 per cent in December 2016. The overall average selling price for calendar year 2016 was $729,922 – up 17.3 per cent compared to 2015. The pace of the annual rate of growth for the average selling price also picked up throughout the year, including a climb of 20 per cent in December.
"Price growth accelerated throughout 2016 as the supply of listings remained very constrained. Active listings at the end of December were at their lowest point in a decade-and-a-half. Total new listings for 2016 were down by almost four per cent. In 2016, we saw policy changes and policy debates pointed at the demand side of the market. If we want to see a sustained moderation in the pace of price growth, what we really need is more policy focus on issues impacting the lack of homes available for sale," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.
Tight Market Conditions in November
December 2, 2016 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,547 home sales through TREB's MLS® System in November 2016. This result represented a 16.5 per cent increase compared to November 2015.
For the TREB market area as a whole, sales were up on a year-over-year basis for all major home types. The strongest annual rates of sales growth were experienced for the townhouse and condominium apartment segments.
"Home buying activity remained strong across all market segments in November. However, many would-be home buyers continued to be frustrated by the lack of listings, as annual sales growth once again outstripped growth in new listings. Seller's market conditions translated into robust rates of price growth," said Mr. Cerqua.
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 20.3 per cent compared to November 2015. The average selling price at $776,684 was up by 22.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis.
"Recent policy initiatives seeking to address strong home price growth have focused on demand. Going forward, more emphasis needs to be placed on solutions to alleviate the lack of inventory for all home types, especially in the low-rise market segments," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.
October Home Sales Up Year-Over-Year
November 3, 2016 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported a record 9,768 sales through TREB's MLS® System in October 2016 – up by 11.5 per cent compared to October 2015. For the TREB market area as a whole, the largest annual rate of sales growth was in the condominium apartment market segment. Detached home sales were up by 10 per cent year-over-year, driven predominantly by transactions in the regions surrounding Toronto.
"The record pace of GTA home sales continued in October, with strong growth observed throughout the month. As we move through November and December, we will be watching the sales and listings trends closely, in light of the recent policy changes announced by the Federal Minister of Finance. TREB will once again be conducting consumer survey work, in order to report on home buying intentions for 2017," said Mr. Cerqua.
The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 19.7 per cent on a yearover- yeaThe MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 19.7 per cent on a yearover- year basis in October 2016. Similarly, the average selling price for all home types combined was $762,975 – up 21.1 per cent over the same time period. Double-digit increases were experienced for all major home types for the TREB Market Area as a whole.
"New listings were up slightly in October compared to last year, but not nearly enough to offset the strong sales growth. This meant that seller's market conditions continued to prevail as buyers of all home types experienced intense competition in the marketplace. Until we experience sustained relief in the supply of listings, the potential for strong annual rates of price growth will persist, especially in the low-rise market segments," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.
August 4, 2016 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua announced that TREB REALTOR® Members reported 9,989 home sales through TREB's MLS® System in July 2016. At just shy of 10,000 transactions, this was the best result on record for the month of July.
While sales were up on a year-over-year basis, the number of new listings was down over the same period, representing the continuation of a troubling trend in the GTA. "GTA REALTORS® have been working very hard on behalf of their buyer clients to help them find a home meeting their needs. Unfortunately, listings for single-detached and semi-detached houses and townhouses continue to be in short supply. The result has been an increase in pent-up demand and annual rates of price increases well above the rate of inflation. Housing policy is now top of mind for all levels of government. Policy makers need to be focusing on solutions to the sustained lack of low-rise inventory throughout the GTA," said Mr. Cerqua.
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 16.7 per cent in July 2016 compared to the same month a year earlier. Similarly, the average selling price for all home types combined was up by 16.6 per cent year-over-year to $709,825.
"Relatively strong labour market conditions, above-inflation average income growth, and record low borrowing costs have kept many households confident about purchasing a home. As long as very strong buying intentions are up against an extreme shortage of listings, expect home price growth to greatly outpace the rate of inflation," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.
Strong Growth in Home Sales in March/Q1
April 5, 2016 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Mark McLean announced record TREB MLS® home sales for the first quarter of 2016 following a strong result for March transactions. There were 10,326 sales in March and 22,575 sales in the first quarter. The year-over-year growth rate for sales was 15.8 per cent for Q1 2016 and 16.2 per cent for March 2016. For the TREB market area as a whole, double-digit year-over-year rates of sales growth were experienced for all major home types during the first quarter.
The positive annual growth in sales was not mirrored on the listings front. The number of new listings entered into TREB's MLS® System during March and the first quarter were down compared to the same periods in 2015.
"At the beginning of 2016, TREB's outlook for the year pointed to a strong possibility of a second consecutive record year for home sales. This outlook was based, in part, on upbeat consumer survey results pointing to robust home buying intentions. It is clear that these upbeat intentions have translated into record first quarter results," said Mr. McLean.
The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benc